Date: 15 Jan 2019

After it was delayed in December, British MPs will finally vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal bringing two years of negotiations,  debates, and postponements to a conclusion. Scheduled to convene at 6 p.m. (GMT), the House of Commons is expected to deliver the verdict on the withdrawal agreement.

If the election then takes place, the result is expected around eight o’clock or maybe later. While an accurate cannot be forecasted at this point, traders should prepare for stronger price movements as the result approaches.

Let’s take an inventory of the cable (GBP/USD):

On the larger picture (weekly chart) we can see that the market over the past few weeks tried to push away from the 1.250 to 1.273 price level. If this succeeds, the last downward movement from early 2018 can be corrected. However, there are no strong signals for a clear trend up till to now.

 

GBP/USD weekly chart. Source: ActivTrader

GBP/USD weekly chart. Source: ActivTrader

 

There is also no clear trend on a 4-hour basis. Since mid-2018, the market stuck between 1.2470 on the downside and 1.3220 on the top. The market is currently trading almost in the middle of these two marks.

 

Possible scenarios that we might expect:

If the market should break through the price level at approx. 1.2675 to the downside, there is a high probability that we will head for price levels at 1.2475 again. If, on the contrary, we break out of the current movement to the upside, let’s say at a price level of 1.2960, at that point there is a probability that we will reach the upper edge of the range at 1.3220.

 

GBP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: ActivTrader

GBP/USD 4-hour chart. Source: ActivTrader

 

In any case, keep in mind that there can be swift movements and also false breakouts. Adjust your position size according to your account and risk profile! Today is bound to be a day unlike any other. 

 

Written by Daniel Schuetz, External Analyst

 

*The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.

All information has been prepared by ActivTrades PLC (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of futures performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at its own risk.