Date: 03 Aug 2017
ThomsonReuters IFR calculates that the 200 week moving average (200 wma) in euro/yen (EURJPY) currently comes in at 130.65. Traders may not normally pay much attention to this long-term moving average, and it should be borne in mind that it’s the weekly close that matters in this regard, but with the event risk pertaining to Friday’s US non-farm payroll data and the attendant possibility of market volatility, traders may wish to make a mental note about the 200 wma. As US firm Morgan Stanley wrote on Wednesday after the yen had sold off during that day’s Asia session and EURJPY had moved above the 200 wma, “EURJPY is one of the currency pairs most sensitive to trends, rarely spending too much time within a corrective pattern.
Over the past 10 years EURJPY has crossed its 200-week MAV only three times; all occasions were followed by significant moves.” Clearly Friday’s price action will pivot off the US jobs data but traders might also wish to keep an eye out for where EURJPY closes in New York at the end of the week. It could be instructive.
Written by Neal Kimberley, External Currency Analyst.