Market Analysis

Commerzbank again in focus as a takeover candidate

A lot has happened since we last looked at Commerzbank on April 18 (Another party interested in Commerzbank?). Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have declared their merger talks closed. The two financial institutions were unable to reach an agreement. Speculation that Dutch ING Bank had an interest in acquiring Commerzbank has so far not led to official talks.

For a short time, it was quiet around the financial institution. However, now the rumour mill is heating up again. After the Dutch, the Italians are now supposed to be interested in Commerzbank. The news agency Reuters reports that the Italian bank, UniCredit, has hired investment banks as possible advisors for a takeover bid.

Interest in German banks is not foreign to the Milanese. In 2005, the Italians took over the Munich HypoVereinsbank. By further expanding its foreign business, Unicredit could position itself more broadly and thus become more independent of the Italian market.

This rumour boosted Commerzbank’s share price during yesterday’s trading. The share masked its upward trend line and then jumped back above the €7.57 level. This could be decisive for further development in the next few days.

If the bulls can repel this, the first significant resistance could be in the €8.10 area. Further resistance zones on the way up could be at €8.70 and €9.20.

However, if the bulls lose impetus and the market falls below the €7.57 level, there could be support at €7.10. If the market falls through here as well, there could be further structural resistance in the €6.50 range.

The short-term uptrend from January is intact. The trend line has offered resistance to the market so far. The MACD oscillator has formed a bearish cross, but after yesterday’s strong market movement it is showing some signs of flattening out.


CBK.GE - daily chart. Source: ActivTrader

CBK.GE Daily Chart | Source: ActivTrader


Written by Daniel Schuetz, External Analyst, ActivTrades

*The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades PLC (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of futures performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided.