Market Analysis

Can a recession still be avoided?

European equities are paring some of yesterday’s gains so far on Friday as investors brace for today’s crucial non-farm payroll data. Safe havens such as Treasuries, JPY and CHF currencies are on the rise as investors look for safety while the economic environment remains uncertain across several asset classes. One of the key questions in investors’ minds now is: can a recession still be avoided?

Most market operators doubt an economic soft landing is still possible, especially as central banks are adopting an increasingly more aggressive approach to combat inflation at the expense of growth. However, no clear market directionality will be expected prior to today’s US job report where analysts anticipate a solid drop to 268k from the 390k jobs created last month. A better-than-estimated figure would suggest the US economy is in a better shape than initially expected, which could provide the Fed with more room for further aggressive moves. On the other hand, a disappointing number would suggest the recession is increasingly unavoidable, which should trigger further panic moves and fear trading on the market.




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